Sierra Leonean president's balancing act
It has been three months since President Maada Bio was sworn in for a second five-year term on the back of elections that led to opposition boycotts.
To rebuild popular support at home and buttress that of international partners, the president has proposed electoral reforms, appointed a relatively young cabinet and drafted a ‘Big Five’ economic plan that includes agriculture, tech and infrastructure.
Even so, the legislative agenda is light, and tensions persist as evidenced by the composition of parliament and recent anti-government protests, inter alia. Additionally, any dip in donor enthusiasm could deprive the government of key funding for capital spending.
Significance – Legitimacy
Only two members of the All People’s Congress (APC) have accepted their seats in parliament since the main opposition ordered its 54 MPs-elect to boycott the legislature.
The APC is protesting against elections that wiped out all other opposition parties from parliament, broadened the ruling Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) majority and gave Bio a second term even though observers found that vote tallies did not add up. Parliament is now almost entirely made up of SLPP MPs and local chiefs loyal to the ruling party.
Bio has attempted to pacify dissatisfied constituents and donors by proposing electoral reforms to be led by his vice president and by replacing old guards in his first-term cabinet with younger ministers. 36-year-old David Sengeh is now chief minister for example. This month, ECOWAS and the Commonwealth also began setting up peace talks between the SLPP and APC, but the government continues to ward off donor-backed initiatives for an independent probe into the elections.
On that note, tensions persist – especially in opposition constituencies – as evidenced by protests on 11 September, dozens of arrests last month, and a foiled a coup plot, according to the government. Freetown-based Radio Democracy 98.1 was reportedly cut off air before it was scheduled to broadcast a recorded interview with the outgoing US ambassador who questioned the credibility of the presidential election and expressed doubts that a key donor programme would be awarded.
A decline in donor confidence would be consequential for Sierra Leone because of its increasing reliance on grants for capital projects. For example, grants were forecast to be 5% of GDP last year compared to 2% in 2018[1] and the Bio administration has specifically pinned key parts of its Big Five agenda e.g., expanding power and transport infrastructure, on receiving a Millenium Challenge Corporation (MCC) compact.
Outlook – Path to reform
General elections are next expected to take place in 2028 when Bio will be ineligible to run again. In the medium term, legislation will likely remain lean while the administration attempts to avoid the semblance of one-party rule. The formation of a new mining parastatal and a road transport regulator is the only major legislative proposal in prospect for now.
Meanwhile, Bio will have to appoint an independent entity to initiate a credible process for electoral reform as a condition for improving political stability and restoring development partner confidence. The governance agenda would be at risk in a scenario where there is no systemic change supported by stakeholders. But allowing for meaningful opposition and reversing some changes that weakened the democratic process would improve the political risk outlook.
—
[1] Sierra Leone Economic Update 2022. World Bank.
—
We are an African-owned and managed firm delivering local knowledge supporting transformative and sustainable strategic decision-making since 2010. For more, please get in touch on advisory@songhaiadvisory.com