Liberia Presidential Election Runoff – A Brief Look at The Kingmakers

On 14 November, President George Weah will face Joseph Boakai in a runoff because no candidate won more than 50% of votes to win the election outright last month. Weah comfortably beat the Unity Party (UP) leader at this stage in 2017, but the president now faces a tougher contest due to a major shift in political alliances. Boakai appears to have bolstered capital in key counties where Weah clearly outperformed him six years ago.

There are four politicians who will play a decisive role in determining who wins in the upcoming runoff – we’ll have a brief look at them below.

Prince Johnson

Johnson is a senator and former warlord who has acted as a kingmaker for over a decade because of his influence in Nimba, which is Liberia’s second most populous county after Montserrado. It was with Johnson’s backing that Weah defeated Boakai in the 2017 runoff, but a fallout between the president and ex-rebel has now changed the complexion of this year’s presidential election. Johnson is in Boakai’s camp and his protégé, Jeremiah Koung, is Boakai’s running mate. This arrangement has clearly favoured the opposition leader. Last month, he beat Weah in Nimba and in Montserrado (includes the capital Monrovia) where nearly half of all Liberian voters live.

Nyonblee Karnga-Lawrence

Karnga-Lawrence and Boakai both belonged to the Coalition of Opposition Parties but the coalition split in 2021 because its leaders disagreed on how to pick the coalition’s presidential candidate. Karnga-Lawrence, the Grand Bassa senator, was expected to be Boakai’s running mate but missed the opportunity when Boakai formed a separate alliance with Johnson. Even so, her support has been highly valuable to Boakai in this large county. The UP candidate significantly improved his share of votes in Grand Bassa from 9% in 2017 to 34% last month.

Tiawan Gongloe

Presidential candidate Gongloe is a former solicitor-general and former ex-head of Liberia’s National Bar Association who dropped out after the first round of votes last month. He notably came third in Nimba behind Weah and Boakai in that round, and so both candidates would now look to gain his endorsement in order to raise their tally in this populous county later this month.

Abraham Dillon

Boakai defeated Weah in his own base Montserrado last month, reflecting the ruling CDC’s declining popularity in and around the capital Monrovia. The fall in popular support first became evident in the 2020 midterm elections when Dillon won Weah’s old seat in the Senate after a series of anti-government protests in Monrovia. Dillon is well placed to influence the outcome of the upcoming runoff given his position in the Senate and given the overwhelming size of the electorate in Montserrado.

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