What’s at Stake in Kenya’s Hotly Contested BBI Referendum?
Kenya is expected to hold a referendum in the first half of this year on constitutional reforms. Known as the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), it dominates the political landscape today. The initiative has the explicit aim of diluting Kenya’s winner takes all status quo and reducing the risk of continued post-electoral violence. However, the BBI faces significant logistical and political hurdles before it can become law.
Significance – where lies the separation of powers in Kenya
The recommendations touch on 13 of the 18 chapters of the 2010 Constitution and are supposed to bring an equitable distribution of power not only between political parties but also the counties, reducing the risk of ethnic violence. However, key provisions of the proposed amendments seem to concentrate power in the hands of the executive, in particular:
A newly re-created role of prime minister with two deputies all appointed by the president,
A judicial ombudsman also appointed by the president.
Re-introduction of the option to appoint cabinet members from within the national assembly i.e., reducing the independence of nominated legislators and their capacity to scrutinise the executive.
Meanwhile, the key county proposals have won a better reception:
Increasing the number of assembly members by 70
Raising county funding from 15 to 35% of government revenues
Establishing a County Ward Development Fund to ensure funding for development activities.
Supporting the adage that politics makes for strange bedfellows, the BBI is being championed by President Uhuru Kenyatta and his frequent foe, Raila Odinga. The two shared a ‘handshake’ in 2018 following the previous year’s electoral violence, and signalling the start of moves toward reconciliation and collaboration. The resultant consultation (widely agreed to have not been inclusive enough) led to the compilation of the BBI report and the passage of the Constitution of Kenya (Amendment) Bill, 2020.
Now, having met the threshold of being endorsed by over one million registered voters, the Bill needs to pass three additional steps (a) approval by a simple majority of the 47 counties, (b) approval by parliament and then (c) a referendum.
Outlook – a high stakes obstacle course
The balance of risk is that the bill will receive county approval[1]. Nevertheless, passage into law faces a rocky path. Kenya’s Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has warned that it may not be able to organise the referendum if the appointment of commissioners is not completed soon by Kenyatta[2].
And public sentiment on the proposals has yet to be fully tested with much of the debate still happening at the leadership level and with the citizenry largely uninformed despite the proximity of the planned vote – simplified versions of the report are yet to be distributed as promised.
Moreover, Covid-19 concerns linger despite Kenya seeming to have largely recovered from the second wave that it saw at the end of 2020 and could interrupt plans for a referendum.
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[1] Support in the counties is more likely to fall along lines of political allegiance than the merits or demerits of the proposed amendments itself.
[2] After resignations, there are only 3 out of 7 commissioners who do not form a quorum.
Photo credit: Unsplash Philip Ndungu
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