Uganda’s Museveni picks a cabinet he intends to shepherd
The Parliament of Uganda is screening President Yoweri Museveni’s cabinet nominees this week – there are 80 of them, up from 79 in his previous term. The list includes a greater degree of gender balance than has been achieved regionally or internationally for the most part. However, the size of team presents organisational challenges, and in the list, ex-bigwigs such as former speaker of parliament Rebecca Kadaga and outgoing prime minister Ruhakana Rugunda are reduced to subordinate roles. The most senior cabinet figures in the new list do not appear to have commensurate political and technical experience, and Museveni is positioned to shepherd the cabinet with no succession plan in sight yet.
Significance – Representation and policymaking
About 43% of the envisioned eighty-person cabinet – including respective vice presidential and prime ministerial nominees Jessica Alupo and Robinah Nabbanja – are women. This compares favourably to cabinets in Uganda’s neighbours Kenya and Tanzania where about 29% and 18% respectively are women. In the UK, it is 21%[1].
However, women in the current Ugandan cabinet are mostly either in a junior role or are relatively inexperienced for their position. For example, Prime Minister Nabbanja only became a legislator in 2011, and her other major political role was as junior health minister for two years. As women’s rights activist Miria Matembe asked last week on the Kampala-based NBS TV, “Who is Nabbanja? Are they going to listen to Nabbanja?”
Moreover, as indicated by Museveni’s ‘Jesus and fishermen’ analogy, the list underscores his control over all policy directions at this level. Most top figures in the last cabinet have either been removed or effectively demoted this time. Former speaker of parliament Kadaga will be deputy prime minister and the outgoing prime minister Rugunda will act as a ‘special envoy’ at the presidency. NB there was periodic friction between the presidency and parliament when Kadaga was speaker — for instance, she criticised a government crackdown on pro-Bobi Wine protests that occurred in November 2020.
Further, the cabinet size suggests the president has put political patronage ahead of effective teamwork. With over 80 people, the cabinet will be larger than Kenya’s and Tanzania’s cabinets combined; and more than three times’ that of the UK.
Outlook – Continuity
Election results in Uganda in the last two cycles seem to have renewed the Museveni’s resolve to strengthen his grip on power while dispensing patronage to reward supportive constituents. For instance, Museveni’s share of votes in this year’s presidential poll dropped to 59% from 68% in 2011, and his main foe Bobi Wine won 72% of votes in the central Buganda region where the president previously used to outshine the opposition (See: A new political opposition emerges in Uganda). The last two vice presidents have been from this region. Now, the incoming one Alupo is from the eastern region.
Despite the innovations in political calculus, we expect policy continuity, with a focus on import substitution. On that note, Museveni (in office since 1986) does not appear to be preparing for near-term succession with this setup, because it accentuates his status as the driving force. Museveni remains the central figure to watch and the cabinet will heavily depend on him for direction. So will the parliament, where Museveni’s preferred candidate Jacob Oulanyah was elected as speaker in May. See: Museveni holds the levers as Uganda’s parliament gets new speaker.
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[1] Five of the 23 substantive cabinet ministers.
*Photo credit: Campaign poster for Incumbent President of Uganda, Yoweri Museveni. Designed by Samson Mwaka for the February 2011 issue of the Kampala Dispatch Magazine. Flickr: Museveni
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