Businesses shut in Nigeria’s southeast over detention of separatist leader
Businesses and government offices were shut in Nigeria’s southeast[1] on Monday (9 August) because the Independent People of Biafra (IPOB) ordered everyone to stay at home on that day. The separatist group gave this order to demand the release of its leader Nnamdi Kanu, who is being held by the State Security Service (SSS) also known as the Department of States Services (DSS) or secret police. The ongoing unrest poses supply risks in the south over the next 18 months, with security forces stretched but focused on suppressing anti-government sentiments ahead of 2023 elections. However, those specific risks, impacts and implications are not reproduced in other regions across the country.
Significance – The state vs IPOB
IPOB is popular in the southeast region, where it wants a referendum for self-determination, but it also regularly enforces its will in the region through intimidation. For instance, a militia enforcing the latest stay-at-home order killed bus travelers in Imo state on Monday. The intimidation is effective because of gaps in the legitimacy and capabilities of government and law enforcement. Unpopular government officials have often won power through a flawed electoral process. One case is Imo state’s Hope Uzodinma, who was sworn in as governor last year after the Supreme Court annulled a gubernatorial election in which he came fourth. Further, the federal police and military forces are frequently viewed as adversaries given their history of repressing separatism in the region. IPOB’s founder Nnamdi Kanu fled the country in 2017 while being tried for his role in IPOB’s secessionism. However, he was rearrested in June this year and his trial resumed last month.
In that context, there have been multiple acts of sabotage in the southeast this year in which unidentified assailants have killed police officers and destroyed facilities belonging to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). For example, gunmen drove to a police station in Anambra state and killed four in a shootout on Monday. The Nigerian government claims IPOB and its associate Eastern Security Network (ESN) are responsible for these attacks, but the crimes remain unsolved and the identity of the attackers disputed.
It is important to note that risks, impacts and implications are not evenly distributed across the country. The southeast is enclosed by the Niger Delta and the central north while isolated from the rest of the country. This way, most of the country’s key supply routes do not pass through the southeast. Official data on internally generated revenue also suggests economic activity is low here compared to the country’s main centres. The region’s top performer Enugu state collected NGN12 billion (about USD33 million) in taxes last year, but Lagos collected 15 times more than that figure, Rivers in the Niger Delta collected five times more and northwestern Kano nearly twice more[2].
Outlook – Restiveness
Kanu’s trial has been adjourned till October. He jumped bail when his trial initially began in 2017, and so authorities will likely continue to detain him now while his trial is prolonged. It appears this will continue for the next 18 months until general elections are held in early 2023.
Meanwhile, the police and military’s limited resources for enforcing the law and securing the business environment are further stretched by other domestic threats, and so firms active in the southeast may continue to be exposed to periodic disruptions due to events surrounding Kanu and IPOB’s rebellion.
A bigger government priority as polls approach will be to inhibit separatism and other forms of dissent anywhere in the country, and this could stoke restiveness. But potential interruptions should be short-lived while firms adjust their operations to moderate impact.
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[1] Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo states
[2] Internally Generated Revenue at State Level (October 2020). National Bureau of Statistics.
*Photo credit: Nnamdi Kanu. Adachineke, CC BY-SA 4.0
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