Religion in focus as Nigeria’s presidential candidates pick running mates
Nigeria’s presidential nominees will name their running mates this week to meet a deadline set by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). There is some tension because the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) may pair two Muslims for the 2023 presidential election and go against a convention that has helped to curtail strife between the north and south. The chief decision-makers here are a group of mostly Muslim northern state governors who are motivated by the size and religious outlook of the electorate in their region.
Significance – Landscape
The standard practice for selecting presidential and vice-presidential candidates in Nigeria is to pair a Muslim from the north with a Christian from the south. This means a southern Christian is VP when a northern Muslim is president. These two roles are then interchanged every eight years or two terms based on the zoning rule.
The purpose of this practice is to minimise religious and ethnic tension because the north is mostly Muslim while the south is largely Christian. However, the ruling APC’s presidential nominee this time is from the south, but he is not a Christian. Bola Tinubu, Muslim, is an unconventional candidate in this context and so the process for choosing his running mate has been complicated.
1. Tinubu and the APC
The complication stems from the role that Islam plays in northern society. A stringent form of Sharia is enforced and practiced in about two-thirds of the region. For example, northwest Kano tried to ban members of the opposite sex from sitting together in taxis in 2019. Southern society is comparatively secular and so northern often Muslims do not consider Muslims in southern states to be devout enough. Further, there are popular and/or prominent instances of discrimination against minority Christians in the mostly Muslim north. For instance, the fortuitous emergence of a Christian governor in southwest Kaduna caused an uproar in 2012, and his subsequent death in office was celebrated.[1] These dynamics undermine support for either a northern Christian or a southern Muslim running mate among northern voters and the region’s political and religious leaders. But a northern Muslim double ticket could cause alarm in swing areas.
2. Abubakar and the PDP
On the other hand, the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is on course to pair its presidential nominee, Atiku Abubakar (northern Muslim), with a Christian running mate from the south. He chose one from the southeast when he ran in the 2019 presidential election, but political capital has since dwindled there due to a violent separatist movement that has stymied voter registration[2] and dampened the legitimacy of elected representatives (See: Southeastern Nigeria gubernatorial election at risk). Most of the politicians now being considered as Atiku’s VP candidate are from the oil-rich, southern Niger Delta.
3. Battleground states
In choosing a running mate, Atiku and Tinubu will also be considering the seven states at the centre of Nigeria between the core north and the south. [3] This ‘north-central’ zone is outside the area governed by Sharia and has typically swung results when votes in presidential elections have been divided along ethnic and religious lines. The zone has also long been the site of ethnic conflict. This is why matching a Muslim presidential candidate with a Muslim running mate would especially alarm constituents here and voting patterns may again be decisive.
Outlook – Campaigns
The ruling APC risks alienating stakeholders in its northwest and northeast strongholds if it nominates a northern Christian for VP. Knowing this, its priority is to preserve support in these zones given the size of the electorate there. Out of seven zones, the northwest alone accounted for 31% of all votes in the 2019 presidential election. Further, nearly all the swing states in the central north are now controlled by the ruling party (see: Nigeria 2023 battleground states), and the party’s mostly Muslim northern state governors will chiefly decide who becomes the VP candidate.
Zoning (especially the religion component) will be the main talking point before and during the campaigns that officially begin in September. This election will effectively be viewed by voters as a contest between the north and south, overshadowing economic and security developments that are presently shaping the risk outlook in the background (See more in Nigeria’s ruling party picks Tinubu in north-south power tussle).
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[1] Gov. Aliyu berates those celebrating Yakowa’s death (December 2012). Vanguard.
[2] Low voter registration worries Ndigbo (June 2022). Vanguard.
[3] The seventh ‘state’ is the capital Abuja.